Microanalysing the World Cup

It turns out world cup suc­cess does not depend on the abil­ity of the play­ers a team fields — but rather the pres­ence of a par­tic­u­lar par­a­site within their home coun­try. This par­a­site, Tox­o­plasma Gondii (which sounds like the name of a foot­baller), may influ­ence the nat­ural dopamine lev­els of those infected. This dia­gram (from wikipedia) shows its life cycle, though it omits the bit where it helps win a World Cup for its host.

From Slate:

If we set aside the qual­i­fy­ing rounds (in which teams can play to a draw) and focus on matches with a clear win­ner, the results are very com­pelling. In the knock­out round of this year’s tour­na­ment, eight out of eight win­ners so far have been the teams whose coun­tries had higher rates of Toxo infec­tion. If we go back to the 2006 World Cup, seven out of eight knockout-round win­ners could be pre­dicted by higher Toxo rates. The one excep­tion to the rule was Brazil’s defeat of Ghana, a match between two nations that each have very high rates. (Aside from hav­ing the win­ningest team in World Cup his­tory, Brazil has quite a few cases of Toxo: Two out of three Brazil­ians are infected.)

It gets bet­ter. Rank the top 25 FIFA team coun­tries by Toxo rate and you get, in order from the top: Brazil (67 per­cent), Argentina (52 per­cent), France (45 per­cent), Spain (44 per­cent), and Ger­many (43 per­cent). Col­lec­tively, these are the teams respon­si­ble for eight of the last 10 World Cup over­all win­ners. Spain, the only one of the group never to have won a cup, is no sub­par outlier—the Spaniards have the most World Cup vic­to­ries of any per­pet­ual runner-up. ”

Coin­ci­dence? Per­haps. But I wish I’d read this before tip­ping a World Cup winner.

  1. 1

    Just read a sim­i­lar thing about cats! http://savvycat.net/2010/06/love-cats-could-be-a-parasite/


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